More single family homes Closed in Old Town in June (17) than any month so far in 2016. Yet, the mid year 2016 number of sales (77) trails the 5-year average by 7% and the number of sales Jan - June 2015 by 29%. The number of sales has been off for three consecutive Quarters; 4th Qtr 2015 (-27%), 1st Qtr 2016 (-33%) and 2nd Qtr 2016 (-26%) (See Summary chart below). Conversely, average sales prices for the 2nd Qtr 2016 skyrocketed to $1.413M, 31% over the 2nd Qtr 2015 and highest since the 2nd Qtr 2006.
For the 1st half of 2016, 42 sales were under $1M and 35 were over $1M including 9 over $2M.
The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to June 30, 2016.
These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key. You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.
1Bed/1Bath single family homes in Old Town are selling at 169% above their 2011 low.
- Three, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days of Market was 61 days.
- The 2016 average sale price of $525,000 is 10% above the average sale price for 2015.
- In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold, the most since 2001.
- The average size of the 2016 Solds is 655 sq.ft., slightly smaller than 2015; however,
- The average sale price per sqft. is a remarkable $802. This figure is 12% higher than 2015 and highest since 2005.
- Eleven, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days on Market was 90 days.
- Average Sold price of $582,000 is the same as 2015 which was 25% more than 2014.
- Nine 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $449K to $1.45M.
- Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.
Since 2009, more 2Bed/2Bath single family homes have sold in OldTown than any other configuration.
- Fourteen, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days on Market was 153 Days.
- The average sold price of $611,000 is 21% below 2015 and only 44% above the low in 2009.
- Seventeen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $450,000 and $2.995M.
- Average Sold price per sqft in 2016 is $537, 19% below 2015 which was 15% more than 2014.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 221 sales.
- Nine, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days on Market was 128 Days.
- The average Sold price of $913,000 is 2% below 2015, which was 3% below 2014, and is 98% above the 2009 low.
- Average sold price per sqft. is $681, up 9% from 2015, primarily because the nine homes sold are the smallest 3/2 homes sold since 2005.
- Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West as value buyers took advantage of comparatively large homes at low prices.
3Bed/3Bath single family homes in Old Town are selling at 94% above their 2010 low.
- Thirteen, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days on Market was 109 Days.
- The average sold price of $1.433M is 18% above 2015 and 94% above the 2010 low.
- The average size of the nine sold is 1858 sq.ft., about average; yet, the average Sold price per sqft. of $771 is the highest since 2008.
- Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.
4Bed/3Bath single family homes in Old Town are selling at $943 per sq.ft., highest since 2005.
- Seven, 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days of Market was 207 Days.
- The 2016 average sale price of $2.306M is 49% above 2015 which was 10% below the 2014 average sold price. $2.306M is 173% above the 2009 low.
- Average Sold price per sq.ft. is $943 is the highest since 2005.
- The average size of these seven sold is 2446 sq.ft., in other words, big homes with outstanding finishes.
- This Bed/Bath configuration has finally solidified its price reversal. Plus, the twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.
4Bed/4Bath single family homes in Old Town are selling at 100% over their 2009 low.
- Five, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 6/30/2016. The average Days on Market was 210 Days.
- The average Sold price of $2.226M is 9% above the 2015 average Sold price which was 30% above 2014 and in the highest recorded. The $2.226M is 100% above the 2009 low.
- The 2016 average sold price per sq.ft. of $815 is 9% above the 2015 average sold price per sqft which was 24% above 2014.
- Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, ten in 2014 and six in 2015.
- Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.
The well-heeled continue to cherry pick the sweetest of the top of the line real estate in Old Town Key West. Recognizing this, sellers have polished their homes to a high sheen. The average sold price per square foot for Jan - June for a single family home in Old Town is $697, up 66% since 2011.
Cash sales remain at their 5 year average of 59% of all sales. Those tapping the mortgage finance market are likely part of the Equifax Risk Score of 760 or higher group.(According to the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, in the 1st Qtr 2016, 58% of all mortgages went to those with a credit score of 760 or higher.)
And yet I can not help but recall the story of a squadron of Navy F8 Crusader fighters in the mid '60's. A squadron of nine aircraft, lead by the Commanding Officer, was headed across country and ran into towering thunderstorms. Instead of separating into 2's and 3's and going around, the nine tried to slowly muscle their way over top. As they moved higher and higher and higher, their forward progress was slower and slower and slower. Of the nine, six ran out of energy, flamed out and spun to earth. Four of the six crashed, two pilots died.
Moral of the story, just because the momentum is forward, no one but you is Pilot-in-Control. Good headwork never goes out of style.
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