Ten single family homes sold in the Old Town area in February 2016 - only the second time since August 2015 the sale figure was ten or more.The average sale price per square foot of $597 was down slightly from Dec 2015 and Jan 2016 but well above the 2011 - 2015 average of $507.  Not surprisingly, sales of two bedroom homes, the most popular of Old Town homes sold, are leading the way.  Sales however are dragging. Of the 122 single family homes for sale in the Old Town area, the average number of days these homes have already been for sale is 145 days. (If you consider the homes that Canceled or Expired and then re-listed right away the figure is 204 days - and still not sold?). 2015 ended with fewer number of sales and lower average sales price than 2014 (read here).  Is 2016 going to be a flat year?

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to February 29, 2016.

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

• Zero 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• The 2015 average sale price of $479,000 was 8% above the average sale price for 2014.
• In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold. Buyers are very choosey about buying smaller Old Town homes.
• The average size of the twelve sold was 674 sq.ft., 13% larger than the 2010 - 2014 average. Also,
• The average sale price per sqft. of $713 was 15% higher, than the 2010 - 2014 average.

• Five 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• Average Sold price of $592,000 is 2% more than 2015 which was 25% more than 2014.
• Twelve 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $535K to $1.5M.
• Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town

Two bedroom/two bathroom homes are the #1 seller in Old Town

• Five, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• The average sold price of $514,000 is 33% below 2015 and only 21% above the low in 2009.
• Fifteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $469,000 and $1.25M.
• Average sold price per sqft in 2016 is $459, 31% below 2015 which was 15% more than 2014.
• Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

• Two 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• The average sold price of $866,000 is 7% below 2015, which was 3% below 2014, yet is still up 88% from the 2009 low.
• Average sold price per sqft. is $764, up 23% from 2015, primarily because the two homes sold are 35% smaller than the 2011 - 2015 five year average.
• Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West as value buyers took advantage of comparatively large homes at low prices.

Sale prices for three bedroom/three bathroom homes in 2015 were the same as in 2014.

• Two 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• The average sold price of $720K is 41% below 2015. 
• The 2016 sold price per sqft. of $460 is 31% below 2015.
• Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
• Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.

• Zero 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• The 2015 average sale price of $1.551M was 10% lower than the 2014 average sold price which was 59% more than the average Sold price for 2013.
• This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.

• One 4Bed/4Bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 2/29/2016.
• This home sold for $1.855M which is 9% below the 2015 average Sold price which was 30% above 2014 and 67% above the 2009 low.
• The 2015 average sold price per sqft of $750 was 24% above 2014.
• Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, 10 in 2014 and six in 2015.
• Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

It's not hard to tell why sales are taking so long and are so sluggish. The rally in sales is long in the tooth at 5+ years and the shrinking qualified buyer pool is risk adverse at overpriced homes.  The 33040 zip code can only buy you so much goodwill.

Making matters all the worse are sellers who held out too long to sell their homes and now face the prospects of not selling at the (most recent) top and may have to back off a "few" percentage points.  Seller and Realtor egos are at stake.

A majority of these sellers are not compelled to sell so not hitting their sale price is of little consequence to them. The resulting market stagnation can be contagious and either will cause more compelled sellers to drop their prices even more to compensate or, if not, cause the market overall to fall.

If you have any comments or questions you can contact me here.

Good luck!