Single family home sales in the Old Town area of Key West for the 1st Qtr of 2016 hit the five year average of 33 sales; however, those 33 sales were down 28% from the 1st Qtr of 2015 and the least 1st Qtr amount since 2012. Conversely, the average Sold price of $980,000 was nearly identical to the 1st Qtr 2015 average Sold price of $978,000. This is due primarily to a handful of high priced sales of 1bed/1bath, 3bed/2bath and 4bed/3bath homes which resulted in an astonishing average Sold price per square foot of Old Town homes for the Quarter of $736. Since 2006, the 1st Qtr has had the second highest number of sales, 2nd Qtr being the highest.
The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to March 31, 2016.
These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key. You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.
- Two 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- The 2016 average sale price of $538,000 is 12% above the average sale price for 2014.
- In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold. Buyers are very choosey about buying smaller Old Town homes.
- The average size of the 2016 Solds is 663 sq.ft., equal to 2015; however,
- The remarkable average sale price per sqft. of $812 was 14% higher, than 2015.
- Six 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- Average Sold price of $623,000 is 7% more than 2015 which was 25% more than 2014.
- Eight 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $525K to $1.5M.
- Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town.
- Eight, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- The average sold price of $578,000 is 25% below 2015 and only 36% above the low in 2009.
- Nineteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $469,000 and $1.5M.
- Average Sold price per sqft in 2016 is $501, 24% below 2015 which was 15% more than 2014.
- Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.
The average Sold price of $1,093,000 is 137% above the 2009 low.
- Four 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- The average Sold price of $1,093,000 is 17% above 2015, which was 3% below 2014, and is 137% above the 2009 low.
- Average sold price per sqft. is $829, up 33% from 2015, because the four homes sold are 16% smaller than the 2011 - 2015 average.
- Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West as value buyers took advantage of comparatively large homes at low prices.
- Three 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- The average sold price of $950,000 is 22% below 2015 and only 29% above the 2010 low.
- The average size of the three sold is1580 sq.ft., the smallest recorded. Also, the 2016 average Sold price per sqft. of $601 is 10% below 2015.
- Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
- Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West.
The average Sold price of $1.913,000 is 126% above the 2009 low.
- Two 4Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 3/31/2016.
- The 2016 average sale price of $1.913M is 23% above 2015 which was 10% below the 2014 average sold price. The 2016 average sale price is 126% above the 2009 low.
- Avrage Sold price per sq.ft. is $839, 23% above 2015.
- This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.
- One 4Bed/4Bath home has sold in the Old Town area thru 3/312016.
- This Sold price of $1.855M is 9% below the 2015 average Sold price which was 30% above 2014. Still, the $1.855M is 67% above the 2009 low.
- The 2016 sold price per sq.ft. of $907 is 21% above the 2015 average sold price per sqft of $750 which was 24% above 2014.
- Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, 10 in 2014 and six in 2015.
- Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.
Summary
The 1st Qtr 2016 marks the fourth Quarter in a row where the number of single family home sales were fewer than the previous years' Quarter. Except for the 4th Qtr of 2015, average sales prices have maintained their strength. Even so, as reported in my 2015 Summary Report, total 2015 sales were less than total 2014 sales with the last five months of 2015 in particular dragging down the year.
The question is, at what point will seller's loosen their grip on sales price, thus increasing the number of sales? Many sellers decided to place their property on the market for sale only because sales prices finally became enticing enough to sell. That decision is a wide mix of - expecting a sale price to cover their debt to providing the cash to buy elsewhere.
For those sellers who truly expected and desired to sell their home in the 2016 "season", April contracts with May closings is fast approaching. And so the ultimate question remains -
Deal or No Deal.