Posted: Oct 03, 2020
Hot September Propels 3rd Qtr Single Family Home Sales in Old Town Key West

More homes sold in Old Town Key West in the 3rd Quarter 2020 (39) than in either the 1st Qtr (32) or 2nd Qtr (25) of 2020. These 39 sales were the most for any 3rd Qtr since 2014, topped the 5-year (2015 - 2019) average by seven and sales in 3rd Qtr 2019 by TEN. For the year, July was the best month of solds and September was second. Sales are steady across all bed/bath configurations. On Prices, the average sold price for the 3rd Qtr 2020 of $1.257M was identical to the 3rd Qtr 2019.  Average sold prices topped $1M in July, August and September with August's $1.579M being top's for the year. The average sold price per sqft for September of $802 was the first over $800 since March and 3rd highest for the year.

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The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2011 to September 30, 2020. When there is a difference between total home sales and the sum of sales in the below seven charts it is because of a sale of, for instance, a 2bed/3bath or 3bed/1bath house or a house with more than four bedrooms.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the six neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town North and South, Bahama Village, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a map of the six neighborhoods of Old Town here.  An analysis of 1st Half 2020 sales, neighborhood by neighborhood, is here.

 

The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

1 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

  • Eight, 1Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020. The average number of days to sell is 89 days.
  • There are three 1/1 homes for sale from $608K to $799K.
  • The 2020 average sale price of $487,000 is 13% less than the average sale price for 2019 and 150% above the 2011 low.
  • In 2015, twelve homes sold and nine in 2016 and 2019, otherwise sales have been weak.
  • The average size of the 2020 homes sold is 620 sq.ft., about average. The average sale price per sqft. of $786 is 12% below 2019.

2 Bedroom/1 Bathroom

 

  • Seven, 2Bed/1Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020.  The average number of days to sell is 87 days.
  • The 2020 average Sold price of $633,000 is 13% above 2019 which at $560K was down 29% from 2018. The $633K is 91% above the 2011 low.
  • Six 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $625K to $1.289M.
  • Twenty-five homes sold in 2018 and twenty-one in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town with 210 sales

2 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Nineteen, 2Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020. The average number of  Days to sell is 99 Days.
  • The average sold price of $930,000 is 4% higher than 2019, is the highest average sold price since 2006 and is 119% above the low in 2009.
  • Thirteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $740K and $1.439M.
  • The 2020 average Sold price per sqft is $787, up 9% over 2019.  In 2019 the average was $724, in 2018 the average was $747.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West with 340 sales.

3 Bedroom/2 Bathroom

  • Seventeen, 3Bed/2Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020. The average number of Days to sell is 118 Days.
  • The average Sold price of $1,119,000 is down 5% from 2019 and is 148% above the 2009 low.
  • The average sold price per sqft. is $769, down 1% from 2019.
  • Twenty-seven homes sold in 2017, twenty-five in 2018 and twenty-six in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the 2nd biggest sellers in Old Town with 248 sales

3 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Eleven, 3Bed/3Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020. The average number of Days to sell is 102 Days.
  • The 2020 average sold price of $1.402M is 2% above 2019 which was 11% below 2018. $1.402M is 90% above the 2010 low.
  • The average Sold price per sqft. of $824 is up 8% over 2019 and is the 2nd highest recorded for 3/3 homes.
  • Seventeen homes sold in 2018 and twenty-six in 2019.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

4 Bedroom/3 Bathroom

  • Fifteen, 4bed/3bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020.  The average number of days to sell is 119 days.
  • The average sold price of $1.611M, is down 17% from 2019 and is 91% above the 2009 low.
  • More 4/3's have sold thru September than 2019 and 2018 combined. Fifteen solds equals the highest annual total ever which occured in 2008!
  • The average sales price per sqft is $728, down 21% from 2019.
  • There are six homes for sale, ranging in price from $1.459M to $3.35M.
  • Number of sales and sales prices for 4Bed/3Bath homes is very choppy though there has been an erratic up trend in average sale price since 2013.

4 Bedroom/4 Bathroom

  • Three, 4Bed/4Bath homes have sold in the Old Town area thru 9/30/2020. Average number of Days to sell is 37 days. Five homes sold in 2019 at an average days on market of 52 days.
  • There are nine 4/4's for sale ranging from $1.99M to $3.9M.
  • The 2020 average sold price of $2.391M is down 2% from 2019, which was unchanged from 2018, and is up 115% since the 2009 low.
  • The 2020 average sold price per sq.ft. of $894 is down 20% from 2019.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with six in 2017, fourteen in 2018 and five in 2019.  Despite the choppy number of sales, price action has been steady, $2M - $2.4M.

Summary

 

In addition to number of sales and sold prices, there are two hidden factors that illustrate the strength of the Old Town Key West real estate market (and indeed the entire real estate market of the Florida Keys) and the pent up desire to own in Key West and the Florida Keys.  They are Cash Sales and Days on Market.

 

The power of Cash sales has been well documented in these reports.  Cash sales of homes in the Old Town Key West area thru September 2020 sits at 46%, or nearly twice the national average. The 5-year average of Cash sales in Old Town is 51%.

 

Second, Days on Market (DOM).  DOM, or the number of days from the day the property is listed in the MLS as Active/For Sale until the day the property is listed in the MLS as Closed, shows the Desire of the Buyer to buy that property.

 

Thru September, approximately 21% of all 2020 sales in the Old Town area of Key West have occured in 20 days or less!  Buyers know what they want and whether on their own (Zillow) or through their Realtor, they see it, they get it.  Many Realtors and brokerages proactively match Buyer and Seller even before a property is formally listed for sale.

Conclusion

 

Sports broadcasters often attribute crowd "noise" to being that inspirational 6th Man, or how The Swamp or Death Valley gives the home team an edge to victory. Myself, I operated within the competing noises of Navy jet engines, 500 kts of wind and the clipped chatter of radio communications inside a form fitting helment.

 

In reality, noise to a professional neither catapults nor arrests. Noise is an element in a function. Some noises are filtered out, some are incorporated. Professionals are optimists who read the noise, adapt and seek opportunity to prosper.

 

Professionals who make and spend big money clearly recognize Old Town Key West real estate as an enduring and steady return safe haven. No matter the noxious noise of pundits near or far, truth be told, outside ownership of Key West real estate has for many decades been, is and will be the prime ingredient and cornerstone for the steady advance and prosperity of the Conch Republic.

 

If you have any comments or questions, please contact me here.

 

Best of luck!