Posted: Feb 06, 2016
Old Town home sales begin 2016 quietly.

For the fifth time in the last six months, less than ten single family homes sold in Old Town Key West.  January's eight homes sold was one less than the 5-year average of nine. The January 2016 average sale price was $874,000 and $616 per sq.ft.  In January 2015, eleven homes sold at an average sale price of $842,000 and $545 per sq.ft. Single family home sales in 2015 were fewer and lower priced than 2014 as reported here. The 4th quarter 2015 dropped in number of sales and average sale prices from the 4th Qtr 2014.  Is the Old Town market taking a pause?

The below charts show sales of the seven most popular bed/bath combinations in Old Town Key West from January 1, 2006 to January 31, 2016.

 

These charts are for single family homes sold south and west of White St. and cover the neighborhoods of The Meadows, Old Town, Truman Annex and Casa Marina but not Sunset Key.  You can view a neighborhood map here. The seven bed/bath combinations below contain enough sales to measure and evaluate trends after the 2004-2006 real estate Bubble.

 

  • Zero1Bed/1Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The 2015 average sale price of $479,000 was 8% above the average sale price for 2014.
  • In 2015, twelve 1/1 homes sold. Buyers are very choosey about buying smaller Old Town homes.
  • The average size of the twelve sold was 674 sq.ft., 13% larger than the 2010 - 2014 average. Also,
  • The average sale price per sqft. of $713 was 15% higher, than the 2010 - 2014 average.

 

 

  • Two 2Bed/1Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • Average Sold price of $603,000 is 3% more than 2015 which was 25% more than 2014..
  • Six 2/1 homes are for sale with prices from $535K to $995K.
  • Fifteen 2/1 homes sold in 2011, sixteen in 2012 and twenty-one in 2013 but only fourteen in 2014 so twenty-three sales for 2015 was very encouraging.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/1Bath homes have been the 3rd most popular selling home in Old Town

 

  • One, 2Bed/2Bath home sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The sale price of $625,000 is 19% below 2015 yet 47% above the low in 2009.
  • Fifteen 2/2's are for sale, priced between $495,000 and $1.25M.
  • Average sold price per sqft for 2015 was $662, 15% more than 2014.
  • Since 2009, 2Bed/2Bath homes have been the biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

 

 

  • One 3Bed/2Bath home sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The sold price of $1,102,000 is 18% above 2015, which ended 3% below 2014, and is up 139% from the 2009 low.
  • Average sold price per sqft. is $1013, up 63% from 2015.
  • Twenty-seven 3/2's sold in 2014 and twenty-one sold in 2015.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/2Bath homes have been the second biggest sellers in Old Town Key West.

 

  • One 3Bed/3Bath home sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The sold price of $615K is 50% below 2015.  The 2015 and 2014 average sold price were equal at $1.218M.
  • The 2016 sold price per sqft. of $338 is 50% below 2015.
  • Twenty-three 3/3's sold in 2014 and nineteen in 2015.
  • Since 2009, 3Bed/3Bath homes have been the fourth biggest seller in Old Town Key West

 

 

  • Zero 4Bed/3Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The 2015 average sale price of $1.551M was 10% lower than the 2014 average sold price which was 59% more than the average Sold price for 2013.
  • This Bed/Bath configuration has yet to solidly reverse price decline. HOWEVER. The twelve sales in 2012, the highest since 2008, and seven sales in 2015, with a climbing average sales price per square foot, shows strength.

 

  • Zero 4Bed/4Bath homes sold in the Old Town area thru 1/31/2016.
  • The 2015 average sale price of $2.047M was 30% above the 2014 average Sold price which was 4% above 2013, and 92% above the 2009 low.
  • The 2015 average sold price per sqft of $750 was 24% above 2014.
  • Since 2003, average number of annual sales is six, with nine sold in 2013, 10 in 2014 and six in 2015.
  • Year to year price action is choppy as a limited number of annual sales causes large fluctuations in average sales price.

Summary

Number of sales fell in 2nd, 3rd and 4th Qrtrs.

Old Town sales generally belong to the well-to-do.  So how is the world of the well-to-do, second home and investment buyers? Those buyers, who use 1031 Tax Deferred Exchanges or buy Old Town homes for cash?

 

As of Feb 5, 2016, 63% of the S&P 500 companies have reported 4th Qtr earnings. 4th Qtr earnings are on track to decline 4.1%, the biggest drop in six years.

 

What are the culprits to this decline?

  • Falling oil prices and asociated industries.
  • Rising value of the dollar impacts exports and the dollar revenue of overseas revenue. Also, a rising dollar makes it more expensive for foreigners to buy US real estate.
  • Weak overseas economies.
  • The costs of Fed policies from Dodd-Frank to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau to the Affordable Care Act.

 

The real estate market in Key West has been up five years in a row.  If you are selling, price to sell.  If you are buying, buy to hold.

 

If you have any comments or questions please contact me here.

 

Good luck.